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Is the West End in Trouble?Dateline: 10th June, 2007The murmurs have started up once again as a spate of high-profile closures have hit West End theatres in recent weeks. Every few years, the theatre world starts navel-gazing and somebody suggests that it is in terminal decline. It may be adding together two and two and making five, but this spring has not been a good period for the impresarios who hope to get rich by putting on shows in what many regard as the world capital of theatre. Although it may not have been seen as such when the press delighted in his outburst, the National Theatre's Nicholas Hytner may have been expressing a hidden concern, when he attacked the critics from the national newspapers as a "dead white men". Under his leadership, the National has gone from strength to strength, with attendances often filling at least 90 per cent of seats in his three theatres. He was clearly very concerned that some a handful negative reviews of A Matter of Life and Death might hit sales hard. That may have been unwarranted, as London is not like New York where, if the Times gives a thumbs-down, the producers give the staff their notice letters. Hytner was also the person who had to decide how long the West End transfer of The History Boys would run. This was Alan Bennett's smash hit that succeeded at the National, on Broadway and on tour, as well as becoming an underrated movie. However, despite a strong cast and good reviews, the producers would not risk running what looked like a banker success through the spring and into what should have been its heyday as tourists flock to London through the summer. Generally, scare stories of this type focus on straight plays, assuming that the big-budget musicals will always be successful. Time will tell as to how The Drowsy Chaperone, Fiddler on the Roof and particularly the most expensive of all, Lord of the Rings draw in audiences. The big surprise is that three of the biggest and best musicals in the West End, The Producers, Porgy and Bess and Evita have closed in the last couple of months, along with the well-regarded though far less well financed Side by Side by Sondheim, which looked like filling The Venue in Leicester Square for years. Clióna Roberts from its PR company CRPR was clearly both surprised and distressed at the early demise of the show and the wider ramifications. "There do seem to be generally small audiences coming out to see shows these days as most shows I go to each night are half full. I worry whether the quiet May, the poor state of the dollar, or increased mortgage rates are affecting peoples spending." This list does not end there, with The Hound of the Baskervilles closing very early following mediocre reviews but, more surprisingly, the producers of Equus pulled the plug on Daniel Radcliffe, the naked Harry Potter, without either extending his run or finding a replacement. It seems that the business model might be changing, with producers ever more fearful of making a mistake. Therefore, they seem more willing to close a show that is doing well but may not in future. They have also realised the commercial possibilities of national tours. While the costs of taking actors and sets around the country may be great, only having to fill pretty large provincial theatres for a week at a time seems a great deal easier than packing out expensive West End houses for month after month. The picture is not all bad. For those lucky enough to have the biggest shows, there is also now the draw of Broadway. Since the Americans have almost stopped producing stage plays on the Great White Way, London has become a great source of new work. At the moment, Kevin Spacey's Moon for the Misbegotten and Peter Morgan's Frost/Nixon are playing in major theatres and Sir Tom Stoppard's Rock 'n' Roll is on the way. Perhaps more surprisingly, David Grindley's popular revival of that archetypal English classic Journey's End has made it, and is soon to be joined by an even less likely transfer, Maria Aitken's lovable, spoof version of The 39 Steps. We even know how to take musicals to New York with Sunday in the Park with George lined up for the autumn and Richard Eyre's Mary Poppins, Catherine Johnson's Mamma Mia! and the RSC's Les Miserables seemingly set to run forever. Yet again, it seems that the prophets of doom are out but they may be a few generations early. Last year, London saw record-breaking figures in terms of both income and audience numbers. While there have been more closures than anyone would wish to see, many West End shows are still doing well and with the influx of the summer tourist trade, at least some producers must be rubbing their hands together with glee. Let us hope so. Philip Fisher
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