It is hardly the Christmas present that any of us would have wanted, but readers may not be surprised to learn that there has been “rapid and significant” shrinking of the arts and entertainment sector during the second half of 2024.

Actors’ and allied artists trade union Equity has carried out an in-depth analysis of Gross Domestic Product data released by the Office of National Statistics and drawn some frightening conclusions. Productivity in the creative arts and entertainment industry shrank by 15% between July and October. This results in a 3.7% average monthly decline, which is the worst since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. It also represents the first time that these sectors have seen four consecutive declining months since they were literally locked down by Boris Johnson in March 2020.

In some ways, the monthly numbers are even worse than the overall figure, given that in each of September and October, the decline was over 4.5%. Proving that statistics can be misleading, were that to continue on an annualised basis, the sector would disappear completely within two years.

We hear a lot about the need to increase defence spending to 3% and return investment in overseas aid to 0.5%, but, until now, it is not obvious that anybody has ever quantified what might be a reasonable level of spending on the arts, entertainment and culture. Equity has done exactly that, calling on the government to take urgent action to redress the decline and set out a roadmap to reach the European average of investing 0.5% of GDP in our sector.

The union has also reiterated a previous position that it plans to pursue industrial claims for improved pay and conditions for the creative workforce. It is worth quoting Equity general secretary Paul W. Fleming at length, since his views are equally insightful and alarming.

“The rapid and significant shrinking of the arts and entertainment industries since Labour took office is alarming. Government must take urgent action to understand and address this fall happening on their watch [and] set out a roadmap to reach the European average of investing 0.5% of GDP in the arts. But Equity will not be waiting for government—our claims for better pay, conditions and investment for our members will deliver the improvements creative workers need.

“Investment in arts jobs and infrastructure, which focuses on the significant economic benefits that UK film, TV, live performance and productions bring to the whole country, will pay dividends. Across the UK we’re seeing mixed responses, with Holyrood making a welcome Budget investment, but Wales not reversing significant arts cuts, and Stormont making their decisions early next year. With creative industries rightly identified as ‘growth driving’ sectors by the government, that’s just not good enough.

“Irrespective of the trends in the GDP data, the union will not be holding back on significant but justified improvements in pay, terms and conditions. Our members can’t wait for a serious industrial strategy from government—the only one of their key areas which has had no extra money committed to it.

“With AI threatening creative jobs, government must take action to boost our creative industries, ensuring well paid jobs exist in a thriving UK arts and entertainment sector which benefits the wider economy.”

To date, the government’s attitude to the arts has been unintelligible, largely characterised by silence from the Cabinet and also Culture Minister Lisa Nandy.

She has, however, taken what should be a positive step by appointing Dame Margaret Hodge to examine Arts Council England projects, and especially the lack of facilities in some areas of the country.

We will have to hope that the upshot of this exercise is not a repeat of the policy forced through by Nadine Dorries, as result of which no extra money became available but funding was withdrawn from companies in the capital, almost every one already struggling (ENO was effectively blackmailed into banishment from its home theatre and city), some of which was then distributed to others in the regions.

According to Ms Nandy, the primary goal of this new project is to “restore people’s connection with the arts and culture in every region of the country”. This will inevitably require additional funds, which, given that Rachel Reeves is demanding substantial reductions in spending across the public sector, sounds like a big ask.

The future may be bright for the arts, but most in the sector will enter 2025 plagued by ongoing uncertainty.